论文----中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心

Pan evaporation (E_pan) is reported to have exhibited a decreasing trend in many regions of the world over the past several decades. However, recently, the latest studies have discovered the inconsistent phenomenon that the E_pan of some regions showed an increasing trend with climate change. E_pan is regarded as a critical indicator that plays a significant role in atmospheric evaporative demand, and its trend has an important significant indication to climate change and ecological environment changes. In this article, we adopted the PenPan model and the method of the total short‐wave irradiance of the pan to reparameterize the PenPan‐20 model for the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). In addition, we employed sensitivity and a contribution model to analyse the attribution of changes in E_pan under climate change over the QTP in 1970–2011. The results showed that the PenPan model can be applied to QTP. Furthermore, the results showed significant decreasing trends of E_pan in 1970–2001 and insignificant increasing trends of E_pan in 2002–2011. Therefore, we compartmentalized the two periods to analyse the cause of changing E_pan by sensitivity and contribution rate. Trend analysis determined that the combined effects of decreasing net radiation and wind speed contributed to the decreasing of E_pan in 1970–2001, and the increasing vapour pressure deficit contributed to the increasing of E_pan in the study area in 2002–2011. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis revealed that net radiation was the most sensitive factor. In addition, the results of analysis of the contribution rate were consistent with trend analysis. The dominant factor of changingE_pan varied in different periods via qualitative and quantitative analysis.